Knickerbalkers

I’m still speechless about the way the Chris Paul saga unfolded, so I might as well head straight to the predictions. I think this is the year Dwight Howard gets the MVP award he may have deserved last season. He’ll put up monster numbers and singlehandedly drag a mediocre Orlando team to the playoffs again. He will also take the Defensive Player of the Year award. Lamar Odom has a good shot at the Sixth Man of the Year award if he comes off the bench enough for the Mavericks. A healthy Chauncey Billups might have a chance for Lob City if he doesn’t start at shooting guard. Beyond them, it could be one of the usual suspects, Manu Ginobili or Jason Terry. I’d put James Harden as the favorite, because I think he’s due for a breakout season, but Scotty Brooks can’t possibly keep starting Thabo Sefolosha over him, right? Thaddeus Young is a possibility, but let’s go with Odom. The Rookie of the Year could be Ricky Rubio if he lives up to the hype. His teammate Derrick Williams and Charlotte’s Kemba Walker will each have a chance, but let’s go with Kyrie Irving, who should be the undisputed starter at point guard for Cleveland and could get upwards of 35-40 minutes per game. Most Improved Player is always tough to call, but I’ll go with a young player ready to make the leap to stardom. The top candidates in my mind are John Wall, James Harden, and new Hornet Eric Gordon. I’m going to give it to John Wall, who has a sneaky good supporting cast around him and might lead the young Wizards to the playoffs.

In the West, here’s how I see things shaking out:

15. Sacramento - A lot of individual talents, not sure they fit together at all.

14. Phoenix - Steve Nash deserves better, but he won’t get it with this team.

13. New Orleans - Great job jumpstarting the rebuilding process with Gordon, Aminu, and Minnesota’s #1 pick. Won’t mean a whole lot of wins this year, though.

12. Minnesota - A ton of potential, nearly all of it a mystery.

11. Utah - This could take a while, but Derrick Favors is a future All-Star.

10. Golden State - Mark Jackson will try to get them playing better defense, but will the players buy in?

9. Houston - Totally screwed over by vetoed three team deal. 9th seems like this team’s ceiling.

8. Denver - A late surge led by the guys playing in China will get the Knuggets to the playoffs once again.

7. San Antonio - The compressed season will be murder on the aging Spurs.

6. Portland - Love the Jamal Crawford acquisition. Felton should have a nice season and this is the year Aldridge gets to the All-Star Game. If Oden can come back at some point, the ceiling could be higher than this.

5. Memphis - The Grizzlies are on the way up. I still don’t understand why they hate OJ Mayo so much.

4. LA Clippers - If they trade one of their many point guards for another wing, the sky’s the limit. The Clips could use a new coach and a new owner, though.

3. LA Lakers - Because they can’t possibly be planning on playing out the season with this roster, can they?

2. Dallas - Big losses in Chandler, Butler, and Barea. Great move getting Odom for basically nothing. They’ll be solid again.

1. Oklahoma City - James Harden’s breakout year will make them the class of the West, if not the whole league.

And the East:

15. Toronto - This team is awful. Wait for Valanciunas, and their inevitable top 5 pick this year.

14. Detroit - A really bad team that appears to have gotten worse while using future cap space.

13. Cleveland - The Cavs will be better, but not by much.

12. Charlotte - The defense should be great again, especially if Biyombo comes. The offense is another story.

11. Milwaukee - The offense should be a little better and hopefully they can stay healthy. That playoff performance a couple of years ago looks like an aberration, though.

10. New Jersey - If they get Dwight Howard, they might switch places with Orlando. Until then, who do they have that makes them a playoff team?

9. Washington - The Wizards will debut their snazzy new uniforms in style, but fall just short of the playoffs.

8. Atlanta - The Hawks took a step back this offseason, but they have enough talent to make the playoffs nonetheless.

7. Indiana - Watch out for Paul George. That is all.

6. Philadelphia - Thaddeus Young should have a nice year and Elton Brand has quietly become a decent player again.

5. Orlando - See New Jersey. Superman has one last feat of strength in him in Orlando.

4. Boston - Injuries are inevitable and Jeff Green’s diagnosis cost them some depth. They’re too talented to fall lower than this, though.

3. New York - Love the Chandler signing. If Baron Davis is healthy, the Knicks are legit.

2. Chicago - If Carlos Boozer is anywhere near the player he was several years ago, the Bulls will finish first again. Ditto Rip Hamilton.

1. Miami - Still the team to beat. Shane Battier makes this team better, but they still have two gaping holes. If Norris Cole is for real, look out.

Before I get to one of the wildest NBA offseasons ever, I’d like to make a few predictions for the remainder of the NFL season. First, the individual awards. I think Drew Brees takes the Offensive Player of the Year award for his soon to be record-breaking season. Aaron Rodgers will settle for the MVP for his role in the Packers’ dominant season. Defensive Player of the Year will go to Jared Allen. The Defensive Rookie of the Year was Von Miller’s to lose, and he hasn’t lost it. Offensive Rookie of the Year will be a little more interesting. Julio Jones has been impressive, but limited by injuries. Christian Ponder has been surprisingly capable for the Vikings, but didn’t start the whole year and is now hurt. Andy Dalton and AJ Green are both deserving candidates, but I think they’ll take enough votes from one another to give the award to Cam Newton, who has been brilliant at times for the woeful Panthers.

Next, the playoff standings. I think the Packers and Saints will lock up first round byes, in that order. The 3rd and 4th seeds will be San Francisco and Dallas. The wild card spots will go to the Falcons and the Lions. I think, in the shocker of the year, the Seahawks will catch the Niners off guard on a short week and take care of business against Arizona to finish at 9-7. However, the Lions would need to lose out for the Seahawks to make the playoffs, and I think they’ll get one win. In the AFC, the first round byes will go to Baltimore and New England. The Texans and Broncos will win their divisions and the Steelers and Jets will grab the final two spots.

In the NFC, the Falcons struggle on the road, but they’ll take care of business in the dome in Dallas. The Lions will give the 49ers a scare, but San Francisco will advance. The Packers will beat the Falcons without too much trouble. New Orleans against San Francisco will be an exciting matchup featuring one of the league’s most high-powered offenses and one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Unfortunately for the Niners, their specialty is stopping the run. The Saints’ diverse passing attack will be too much for them. In the AFC, the Steelers will crush the Broncos. In the other first round matchup, TJ Yates going up against Darrelle Revis and the vaunted pass defense of the Jets will mean a ton of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. I think they’ll do enough to give the Texans’ excellent defense a chance to hold an inconsistent Jets offense in check. Baltimore has had the Steelers’ number all year, but it’s nearly impossible to beat a team three times in one season in the NFL. Pittsburgh gets the W. The Texans defense will have their hands full with Tom Brady and the Patriots, but I think they’ll get the job done. The Patriots defense, especially their secondary, is abysmal, and even TJ Yates will be able to put up numbers.

In the NFC Championship Game, the Packers will repeat their season-opening performance and defeat the Saints in a high-scoring affair. In the AFC, the Steelers shut down the Texans’ ground game and win a low-scoring slugfest, setting up a repeat of last year’s Super Bowl. The Packers are significantly better than last year, and the Steelers are equal at best. Aaron Rodgers gets another ring and another Super Bowl MVP.

The lockout’s over! I’ve got a couple of new posts on the way about the NFL and the upcoming NBA season, but I just wanted to make some quick points about some recent NBA rumors.

First up, the New Jersey Nets. The Nets shocked the NBA world last season with a high-risk trade for Deron Williams. They mortgaged their future in order to acquire a superstar point guard who could leave after just a season and a half. Now, it looks like we’ve gotten closer to that worst case scenario. Deron Williams supposedly said today that he would not sign the extension offered by the Nets, opting instead to become a free agent after the season. To be fair, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. D-Will has said all along that the Nets would need to make significant improvements over these two seasons before he would consider re-signing with them. The Nets were better last season than the season before, but a lot of that was solely due to the presence of Williams. Besides him, they have a center who can score a ton but can’t out rebound some point guards and is allergic to defense. After D-Will and Andrea Bargnani 2.0, they have…. I don’t know, Sasha Vujacic? This is a D-League team without D-Will, and he’d be stupid to sign an extension with them now. The only way he’s following the team to Brooklyn is if they make a big splash in free agency or the trade market in the next 3+ months.

Speaking of which, the Nets have reportedly made a strong offer to the Magic for another 2012 free agent, Dwight Howard. The Nets would use the new amnesty clause on Travis Outlaw (which probably happens either way) and send Brook Lopez and two first round picks to Orlando in exchange for Dwight and Hedo Turkoglu’s horrible contract. This may be the best offer the Magic get, but I’m not sold. The picks will be decent, but I believe they would have to be from 2013 and 2015, as teams cannot give up picks in consecutive seasons. That looks like a long rebuilding process for the Magic, and I’m not sold on Lopez being a franchise cornerstone. I think I’d prefer Andrew Bynum, a first rounder or two, and Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol, which could be the Laker’s inevitable offer. I think there’s a decent chance the Magic hold on to Dwight Howard and make one last playoff run. I said after the Deron Williams trade that the Nets would need to trade Brook Lopez, either for Howard or for solid starters at multiple positions. Those look like the only options now if they want to keep D-Will.

Last but not least, we have Chris Paul. A couple days ago, the Celtics were reported to be putting together a package built around Rajon Rondo in the hopes of getting CP3. This move would be great for New Orleans. While Chris Paul is a better point guard, Rondo is under contract for several years. Immediately, this would be a great move for Boston. Paul is an upgrade over Rondo for a team in need of a secondary scorer. The deal might even be enough to make them the championship favorites if healthy, admittedly a big if. However, it’s an irresponsible deal for Danny Ainge to make unless he can extend CP3. The Celtics are already facing a brutal rebuilding project in a year or two once Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen either move on to different teams, retire, or decline to the point that they’re no longer effective. If they were to trade for Chris Paul and lose him after the season, their best young player would then be the inconsistent and underwhelming Jeff Green. Rondo is questionable as a franchise player on his own, but the Celtics can’t afford to give him up for a one year rental. A better target might be Russell Westbrook. He’s a solid point guard who plays great defense, though his defense is not as good as Rondo’s. More importantly, he’s still on a rookie contract, so he’ll be under more organizational control than Paul.

Chris Paul quickly shot down the rumor, saying that he wouldn’t sign an extension if he was traded to Boston. This is a smart move, as the Celtics don’t have much of a long-term future. Today, Chris Paul’s agent reportedly told the Hornets that CP3 wanted a trade to the Knicks. As a Knick fan, I’m ecstatic, but I know it’ll be tough to get a deal done. The Knicks have very little to offer New Orleans, a fact the Hornets have acknowledged. There’s a chance that Billups, some combination of Fields, Douglas, and Shumpert, and a first round pick or two might be enough to get it done, but that would be a steep price to pay for an already shallow Knicks team. There is another factor working in the Knicks’ favor, however. People have been quick to compare the current situation to Carmelo Anthony’s last year. That’s not entirely accurate. While both players wanted to be traded and made it clear that New York was their preferred destination, Chris Paul has a lot more leverage. Melo was looking ahead to the looming CBA negotiations and knew that the new deal would almost definitely benefit the owners. He had an extension on the table and knew that he would be giving up a lot of money by hitting free agency. He likely would’ve signed long term with the Nets or another team that had traded for him and there were indications he would’ve even taken the extension with the Nuggets if no trade could be completed. CP3 would be perfectly content waiting until the end of the season and signing with the Knicks outright. He would be leaving some money on the table, as the Knicks’ cap space will likely be just shy of a max deal. However, the cost would be far less than it would’ve been for Melo.

We’ve arrived at the final day of the regular season, so it’s time to revisit the predictions I made last month.

NL West - San Francisco

I sorely underestimated the Diamondbacks. I still don’t see them as championship contenders, but they ran away with their division.

NL Central - Milwaukee

The Brewers finished strong and easily won their division.

NL East - Philadelphia

This one was never really in doubt. The Phillies are the best team in baseball and will go into the playoffs as the only 100-win team despite a long losing streak after they clinched the division.

NL Wild Card - Atlanta

The Braves have really struggled and now find themselves tied with the Cardinals. St. Louis has been red hot and they have an easier matchup tonight, so I’d expect them to win, knocking the Braves out of the playoffs.

AL West - Texas

The Angels made it interesting, but the Rangers’ lead was too much to overcome.

AL Central - Cleveland

The opposite of Arizona. I believed too much in the Indians. Ubaldo Jimenez struggled and Justin Verlander did his best Bob Gibson impression, leading the Tigers to a division title with the largest margin of any team this year.

AL East - New York

When I made this prediction, the Yankees had just taken a half game lead over the Red Sox. This one stayed close for a couple weeks until Boston began its historic meltdown, but more on that later.

AL Wild Card - Boston

No one thought it could happen, but the Red Sox’ 9 game lead at the beginning of September is gone. The Red Sox and Rays enter the final game of the season tied for the wild card. Tampa faces a Yankees team with nothing to play for, while Boston faces a Baltimore team that will treat this game like it’s Game 7 of the World Series. Still, I think both teams win, setting up a one game playoff in Tampa, which the Rays will win.

Playoffs

I’ll stick with my original prediction of Phillies over Yankees. I see the Yankees beating Detroit and the Rays overcoming their fatigue to shut down the potent Rangers lineup. They’ll run out of steam against the Yankees, though. I think the Phillies will handle the Cardinals and the Brewers will overwhelm Arizona. I like the Brewers, but the Phillies are simply too good.

NL MVP - Ryan Braun

I’ll stick with this one. Matt Kemp has the better numbers, but Braun isn’t too far behind and is having by far the best season of any player on a playoff team.

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay

Halladay has slowed a bit and is hurt in the voting by having another legitimate contender, Cliff Lee, as a teammate. Ian Kennedy has an outside shot, but Clayton Kershaw has been far and away the best pitcher in the NL.

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez

This is probably the most interesting race left. Gonzalez seemed like an easy choice in August, but Boston’s collapse has made him, fair or not, a somewhat less compelling candidate. He also has struggled a bit of late and now sits third in average and RBIs, two categories he led for most of the season. I think that’s enough for Curtis Granderson, who is second in home runs and first in RBIs for a division winner, to take the award.

AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander

I said in August that Verlander had run away with the award. Since then, he’s taken his game to another level, and now can’t even see his competition. His 24 wins are the most since Randy Johnson’s Cy Young season in 2002 and if that weren’t enough, he also leads the AL with a 2.40 ERA, 251 innings pitched, 250 strikeouts, and a ridiculous 0.92 WHIP.

Now, the individual awards. I’ll stick to the main ones, MVP and Cy Young.

NL MVP – Ryan Braun

This is an extremely tough call. There is no standout candidate. Matt Kemp probably has the best numbers (.319, 28, 89), but the Dodgers are terrible. The remaining candidates all come from the top NL Central teams. Albert Pujols and the resurgent Lance Berkman from the Cardinals and Braun and Prince Fielder from the Brewers. Neither of the Cardinals’ candidates really stand out enough to overcome the fact that their team will likely miss the playoffs. As for the Brewers, Fielder has more home runs and RBI’s, but Braun is second in the batting race. Braun is projected to finish with 30 HR and 101 RBI. If he gets there, it may be enough. Justin Upton may get a look as well, but only if the Diamondbacks hold off the Giants.

NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay

Doc Halladay leads the NL in wins and is tied for third in ERA, all while leading the best pitching staff in baseball. Other candidates include the Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong (10-2, 2.47), who has quietly had a very strong season, the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (15-5, 2.60), former Yankee Ian Kennedy (15-4, 3.22) who has had a breakout season for Arizona, and dark-horse candidate Johnny Cueto. Cueto has a pedestrian 9-5 record for the struggling Reds, but boasts a sparkling 1.89 ERA. He’s only thrown 128 innings, so he’s a major long shot, but if he finishes strong and gets a few more wins while keeping his ERA down and Halladay struggles, he could surprise everyone.

AL MVP – Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez was the clear favorite for this award at midseason, but the race has gotten a bit closer. Jose Bautista has had another monster season, but the Blue Jays won’t sniff the postseason. The serious candidates are Gonzalez, Michael Young, Paul Konerko, and Curtis Granderson. Gonzalez leads the league in batting average, but holds only a razor-thin margin over Young, who also has a ton of RBI’s. Gonzalez is second in RBI’s to Granderson, who is also second in home runs. Konerko isn’t in the top three in any triple-crown categories, but is having a very strong season. If the White Sox win their division, he could be a dark-horse candidate. For the most part, however, this comes down to Gonzalez and Granderson. If either of these players ends up leading two triple-crown categories, that may be enough. It also might come down to which player leads their team to a division win. Guessing right now, though, I see Gonzalez taking the hardware.

AL Cy Young – Justin Verlander

For a while, it looked like this would be a suspenseful race, with CC Sabathia as the possible favorite. However, CC has cooled off a bit and Verlander has taken the opportunity to run away with the award. He leads the league in wins with 18 and is second to Jered Weaver with a 2.31 ERA. If the Tigers limp to the finish and miss the playoffs, Sabathia may take the award, but it seems unlikely.

Time for some MLB predictions, with just over a month left in the season. First, the playoff races.

NL West – San Francisco

The Diamondbacks have been one of the biggest surprises of the season and currently hold a 2 ½ game lead over the Giants. However, the defending champions are just too good to lose to an Arizona team that seems due to fall off.

NL Central – Milwaukee

The Brewers currently lead St. Louis by 6 ½ games and should be able to hold on to that lead.

NL East – Philadelphia

This one is easy. The Phillies have the best record in baseball and lead their division by 8 ½ games. The Braves are a very good team, but have little to no chance of catching the red-hot Phillies.

NL Wild Card – Atlanta

The Braves have a 6 game lead over San Francisco and a 6 ½ game lead over St. Louis. They’re good enough to hold those leads.

AL West – Texas

The Rangers have a 6 game lead over the Angels. The Angels have been a nice surprise, but have recently gone ice-cold and shouldn’t catch the talented Rangers.

AL Central – Cleveland

The Indians were the story of the first half, but cooled off and were overtaken by the Tigers. The Tigers currently lead by 1 ½ games, but the Indians have played well of late and will be tough to stop if Ubaldo Jimenez gets used to the American League in the near future. Don’t count out the White Sox either. They sit 4 games back.

AL East – New York

Surprise, surprise, I’m picking my Yankees to win the division. Hear me out, though. The Red Sox have been decimated by injuries and recently fell into second place. The Yankees only lead by half a game though, so Boston could be back in first in a few hours. However, the Yankees are getting healthier as the Red Sox move in the opposite direction. Jeter, Granderson, and Cano are on fire this month and the already potent Yankee lineup should be bolstered by the addition of a hopefully healthy Alex Rodriguez tomorrow. That should be enough to help the Yankees hold off their rivals. These two teams have six games remaining, however, so this will be one to watch.

AL Wild Card – Boston

It is all but guaranteed that the wild card will come from the loaded AL East for the fifth consecutive season. The Red Sox lead the Rays by 8 ½ games and the Angels by 10 games. This spot will go to whichever team finishes second in the East.

Now that we have a playoff field, let’s see some predictions. Texas should finish with a better record than Cleveland, so the AL matchups would be New York-Cleveland and Texas-Boston. In the NL, Milwaukee should finish ahead of San Francisco, so it would be Philadelphia-San Francisco and Milwaukee-Atlanta.

I think New York and Boston will win their first round matchups. The Yankees are 4-3 against the Indians and the Red Sox are 0-3 against Texas, but I believe they are simply the two best teams in the AL.

In the NL, the Phillies are 4-3 against the Giants and the Braves are 5-3 against the Brewers. I think the Phillies and Brewers will probably advance.

The Yankees have struggled against the Red Sox this season, but I think that as the healthier team and the team with home field advantage, the Yankees would win this matchup and secure a berth in the World Series.

The NLCS would be very interesting. The Brewers may be the only team in the NL who can hit with the Phillies. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies’ pitching is just too good. The Brewers are 2-1 against the Phillies this season, but their good fortune runs out here.

So, we will be treated to a monster of a World Series matchup, pitting the Yankees against the Phillies. This would be a very interesting, tightly contested series, but in the end, the Phillies’ rotation is simply too strong and they will win a hard-fought championship.

Well, the lockout has officially begun, so all NBA transactions are on hold indefinitely. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t plenty to digest from the days leading up to the lockout.

First, the draft. I’ll stick with the Knicks’ moves here, otherwise I’ll be here all day. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I wasn’t exactly thrilled with the Iman Shumpert pick when it first happened. That’s precisely why I waited this long to write this post. I wanted to take some time to think about it and read up on the newest Knick rather than posting a less informed knee-jerk reaction.

I’m still not convinced that Chris Singleton wouldn’t have been a better pick here, as he’s a better defender and has the size to legitimately guard four positions, as opposed to two, maybe three for Shumpert. True, Singleton is primarily seen as a hybrid 3/4 and we do have a couple of decent players at those positions. However, as far as I can tell, there’s no rule in the NBA against playing three forwards at once. Talented players with size will always find a way to get on the floor. I expect Singleton to be a steal for the Wizards.

As for Shumpert, he is a freak athletically and seems to be a very good defender with great size for his position and tremendous length. However, his decision making at Georgia Tech was, to put it diplomatically, suspect. He was turnover prone, took bad shots, and did little to make his teammates better. He also was a terrible shooter, though he allegedly shot the ball pretty well in his workout for the Knicks. I think he has a chance to be a serviceable offensive player and an above average defender. If we expect him to run the point, though, we’re in trouble. Everything I’ve seen leads me to believe that Toney Douglas is a better option at the point than Shumpert. All in all, I’m less upset about this than I was on draft night, but I’m still not thrilled. I’ll reserve my judgment until next season starts, whenever that is.

The Knicks’ other move on draft night was to buy a mid-second round pick from the Hornets and take Josh “Jorts” Harrelson from Kentucky. Jorts was a role player who became a starter after DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton went pro and Enes Kanter was ruled ineligible. He played surprisingly well for the Wildcats, particularly in the NCAA Tournament. He is exactly the kind of blue-collar player we need, a guy who’s not afraid to mix it up and do the dirty work inside. I’m not sure he has the talent to get significant playing time with the Knicks, but given the current state of the Knicks’ front line, he’ll certainly have the opportunity.

Finally, let’s take a look at the last deal made before the lockout. The Cavaliers traded J.J. Hickson to Sacramento for Omri Casspi and a conditional first round pick. This trade makes some sense for both sides, but more for the Kings. It’s hard to believe it was barely a year ago that Danny Ferry balked at the thought of including Hickson in a trade for Amar’e Stoudemire, choosing instead to deal for the cheaper Antawn Jamison. We all know how that turned out. That placed a ton of pressure on Hickson to show the fans why he was deemed untouchable. He produced mixed results. This season, he was arguably the Cavs’ best player, though that says a lot more about the Cavs than about Hickson. On the other hand, he clashed frequently with new head coach Byron Scott, which may have facilitated his way out of town. The Cavs get some decent value back in Casspi, a versatile forward with deep three-point range. He should score plenty for a team that desperately needs it. This trade also would seem to open up more playing time for the 4^th pick in the draft, Tristan Thompson. The Cavs were very high on him and now he’ll have a chance to show why. As for the Kings, they had way too many shooters and not enough interior scorers. If the Kings make Cousins a center, Hickson should start at the 4.

Now that we’re locked out, there won’t be any new NBA headlines for a while, so this will have to hold you over for the time being. In the meantime, I’ll get to work on my first baseball-related post, which will either be my All-Star picks, or midseason awards and second half predictions.

With a potential lockout looming, it’s time for the final event of the 2010/11 season, the NBA Draft. Here are my predictions. UPDATE: The Bobcats, Kings, and Bucks have agreed on a three-team deal. Charlotte would receive the 7th pick and Corey Maggette, Sacramento would receive the 10th pick and reacquire John Salmons, and Milwaukee would receive the 19th pick, Stephen Jackson, Beno Udrih, and Shaun Livingston. I have updated several picks in order to reflect this trade.

1. Cleveland – Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke

This one is a no-brainer. Derrick Williams may turn out to be a better player, but Irving is a sure thing for a franchise that can’t afford a bust right now. Irving will stabilize the point guard position and next year the Cavs may be back in this position to grab a wing player or a big. 

2. Minnesota – Derrick Williams, SF, Arizona

The Timberwolves have been trying for a while to move this pick for a veteran and have apparently had talks about packaging it with Kevin Love in exchange for Pau Gasol or trading the pick straight up for Steve Nash. I don’t think either of those will go through, but I think Minnesota will end up with a smaller trade, like Phoenix’s proposal of Marcin Gortat and the 13^th pick. Whoever picks here will take Williams and hope they can find a position for the talented forward. 

3. Utah – Enes Kanter, C, Turkey

Kanter has tremendous talent and will help the Jazz move on in the post-Sloan-and-Deron-Williams era. Brandon Knight is a real possibility here, but I think they wait to address the point guard position until later in the lottery. 

4. Cleveland – Jan Vesely, SF, Czech Republic

The Cavs want Kanter bad, but in this scenario, he’s off the board. Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker may be the best available players, but they are now redundant with Kyrie Irving in the fold. Jonas Valanciunas would fit in nicely, but his buyout with his current team prohibits him from playing in the NBA next season, which is a deal-breaker for a team that needs to get better now. Rumor has it the Cavs may reach for Texas’ Tristan Thompson, but I can’t see that happening, so I’ll go with the athletic Czech forward. 

5. Toronto – Brandon Knight, PG, Kentucky

Admittedly I don’t really follow the Raptors, so I didn’t notice when Jose Calderon fell out of favor with the team. In any case, Toronto would love to get a new point guard, especially one with Knight’s scoring ability. Bismack Biyombo could come in and have a Tyson Chandler-like effect on the Raptors’ league-worst defense, but after several years, I’m not convinced that’s a priority for Bryan Colangelo. 

6. Washington – Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Diego State

The Wizards need wings to join a young core of John Wall, Andray Blatche, and Javale McGee. For now, they have Nick Young at the 2, so they’ll grab a small forward. With Vesely off the board, Leonard is the best available. The Wizards are also looking to package their two first round picks in order to move up and take Enes Kanter, so keep an eye on that. 

7. Sacramento – Kemba Walker, PG, Connecticut

The Kings have admitted that Tyreke Evans is not an NBA point guard, so they’ll grab the talented Husky as a major upgrade over Beno Udrih. UPDATE: The Kings have traded this pick to Charlotte as part of a three-team deal. The Bobcats will likely take Tristan Thompson.

8. Detroit – Jonas Valanciunas, C, Lithuania

The Pistons like Biyombo, but I think he’s enough of an unknown to scare off a Pistons team with a new owner that can ill afford to miss on this pick. They’ll wait out another tough season, get another high lottery pick, and then bring in that pick at the same time as Valanciunas, who will bring more toughness and defense than the prototypical European big. 

9. Charlotte – Bismack Biyombo, PF, Congo

The Bobcats have a lot of needs, and scoring is probably at the top of the list, so Alec Burks, Klay Thompson, and Marshon Brooks are all possibilities. But at the end of the day, I don’t think they’ll be able to resist the mysterious Congolese forward’s game-changing potential on defense. UPDATE: With Tristan Thompson already picked at #7, the Bobcats will go with Alec Burks.

10. Milwaukee - Alec Burks, SG, Colorado

If you thought the Bobcats needed scoring, allow me to introduce you to the 2010/11 Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks had the league’s third best scoring defense, but managed just 91.9 points per game, by far the worst mark in the league. They’ll be enticed by Marshon Brooks, maybe the best pure scorer in the draft, but he seems like a bit of a reach here. Many scouts like Klay Thompson better than Burks, but Thompson is more of a shooter than a scorer. Brandon Jennings isn’t a pure point guard, so the Bucks need a wing player to be able to create his own shot. UPDATE: The Bucks have traded this pick to Sacramento as part of a three-team deal. The Kings will likely select Kemba Walker. 

11. Golden State – Tristan Thompson, PF, Texas

The Warriors are desperate for frontcourt talent. They’d prefer to add a true center and let David Lee play power forward, but USC’s Nikola Vucevic is a reach here. Tristan Thompson is the best available frontcourt player. The Warriors are shopping Monta Ellis, so they may go for a wing player like Klay Thompson, Marshon Brooks, or Chris Singleton if they feel confident an Ellis trade would bring back a better frontcourt player. UPDATE: With Tristan Thompson off the board, the Warriors will select Bismack Biyombo.

12. Utah – Jimmer Fredette, PG, BYU

This pick seems too perfect not to happen. The Jazz just had their iconic head coach suddenly retire and then traded their franchise player. Most Jazz fans probably can’t remember the last time their team wasn’t a playoff contender, so the team needs a way to keep their fans interested during what might be a lengthy rebuilding process. Fredette, a local favorite from BYU with unlimited range, would certainly do that.

13. Phoenix – Markieff Morris, PF, Kansas

As I said earlier, Phoenix has offered this pick to Minnesota along with Marcin Gortat in an effort to move up and take Derrick Williams. Minnesota would probably take Klay Thompson or Marshon Brooks, but if it’s Phoenix, I see them taking the bigger Morris twin to give them some much-needed toughness up front. 

14. Houston – Nikola Vucevic, C, USC

The Rockets need to admit that Yao probably will not get fully healthy any time soon, if ever, and move on. They were forced to play the 6’6” Chuck Hayes at center for the majority of the season and unless Hasheem Thabeet makes a huge leap, their prospects for the upcoming season won’t be much better. The 7-footer from USC may be a reach here, but the need is too strong to pass him up. 

15. Indiana – Klay Thompson, SG, Washington State

The Pacers also could use a power forward, but they seem more satisfied with Tyler Hansbrough than they are with Brandon Rush and Paul George, so they’ll go with the sweet-shooting guard out of Washington State. Marshon Brooks is another possibility. If they do decide to take a PF, Donatas Motiejunas, Marcus Morris, and Kenneth Faried are the best available. 

16. Philadelphia – Jordan Hamilton, SF, Texas

The Sixers need a center, but there isn’t one worth taking here. They seem intent on trading Andre Iguodala, so they’ll draft his replacement, the 6’9” small forward from Texas. Hamilton can slot in next to Evan Turner on the wing and give the Sixers one of the bigger wing duos in the league. 

17. New York – Chris Singleton, SF, Florida State

The Knicks have shown interest in Fredette and Thompson, but both are off the board. They have also shown interest in moving up to take one of them, but assuming they don’t, they’ll look to address their two biggest problems: rebounding and defense. Kenneth Faried may be the best rebounder in the draft, but I think they’d be better off taking Singleton, who has a chance to be an elite perimeter defender. 

18. Washington – Marshon Brooks, SG, Providence

Having addressed their hole at small forward with the athletic Kawhi Leonard, the Wizards will take Brooks, who should be a big-time scorer in the NBA. 

19. Charlotte – Donatas Motiejunas, PF, Lithuania

The Bobcats would love to get Brooks to help their offense, but the Wizards beat them to it. They could take Faried to help offset the loss of Gerald Wallace’s rebounding ability, but I think they’ll go for the polar opposite of the last guy they picked. Biyombo is an elite defender, but has virtually no offensive game. Motiejunas is a weak defender, like most European bigs who come to the NBA, but he’s a very skilled scorer who can help the Bobcats struggling offense. UPDATE: The Bobcats have traded this pick to the Bucks as part of a three-team deal. The Bucks will likely select Marcus Morris.

20. Minnesota – Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State

It’s always tough to know what David Kahn is thinking. Assuming they didn’t trade the second pick to Phoenix, they still need a shooting guard. There isn’t one worth taking here, so Kahn will leave us scratching our heads again by taking Faried, a less offensively skilled version of Kevin Love, and the speculation that Love will be traded will be multiplied by about 100. 

21. Portland – Marcus Morris, PF, Kansas

The Blazers love Faried, but they just miss out on him, so they’ll take the other Morris twin, who will be shocked to see himself fall this far. UPDATE: With Morris off the board, the Blazers will likely select Donatas Motiejunas.

22. Denver – Tobias Harris, SF, Tennessee

Harris is a versatile player who will fit well in whatever role George Karl decides to use him in. 

23. Houston – Darius Morris, PG, Michigan

The Rockets already have Kyle Lowry at the point, but they are believed to like Morris, who at 6’5” is big enough to play alongside Lowry at times. 

24. Oklahoma City – Reggie Jackson, PG, Boston College

The Thunder don’t have a lot of holes, so they’ll go with Jackson, who may be the best available player. 

25. Boston – Jeremy Tyler, C, USA

The Celtics need to recover from the disastrous Kendrick Perkins trade. Unless they’re willing to go into next season with Jermaine O’Neal and Nenad Krstic as their only centers, they’ll have to get a new one (or more). The talented American center who chose to forgo his senior year of high school and played in Israel and Japan will bring much-needed size. He’s a project and his time in Israel was troubling, but his talent had some projecting him as a future lottery pick this time last year. 

26. Dallas – Justin Harper, PF, Richmond

The champs need youth, which doesn’t really narrow things down. Harper is a power forward who can score inside and outside, and he would benefit from the opportunity to learn from the best such player in the league. 

27. New Jersey – Kyle Singler, SF, Duke

The Nets’ roster is a mess. Aside from Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, they have virtually nothing of value. They need a lot of different things, and Singler is the kind of versatile player that could help them out. He was seen as a potential lottery pick in high school, but hasn’t progressed as many had hoped. If the Nets want any chance of keeping Williams, this is the kind of value pick they need to make.

28. Chicago – Malcolm Lee, PG/SG, UCLA

The Bulls need scoring, particularly at the shooting guard position. Lee is a talented, athletic combo guard who has had some attitude problems in the past. Joining a team with a strong collective identity like the Bulls should help. The Bulls are looking to package this pick along with the 30^th in order to move up. 

29. San Antonio – Nikola Mirotic, PF, Serbia

The Spurs have been looking into trading Tony Parker to get a lottery pick, but if they stay here, they may look to draft a player and leave him in Europe for a few years. Scouts love Mirotic’s talent and he could be a big part of the Spurs’ plans as they move on post-Duncan. 

30. Chicago – Davis Bertans, SF, Latvia

Bertans is a very young forward currently playing in Slovenia. He likely wouldn’t come to the NBA for at least 2 or 3 years, but the Bulls can afford to wait. Shelvin Mack, Trey Thompkins, and Iman Shumpert are also strong possibilities.

Anthony Carter – Carter surprised most Knicks fans by getting significant minutes and, for the most part, earning them. Carter’s veteran influence helped calm an often disjointed Knicks team and he played some terrific defense, once memorably shutting down Dwyane Wade for a stretch in a win over Miami. B+

Chauncey Billups – Billups showed flashes of his old self and hit a few big shots. However, he shot poorly overall and never really recovered from an injury shortly after the trade. He suffered another injury in the first game of the playoffs and didn’t return. C+

Carmelo Anthony – Melo was as advertised in his brief time in New York. He was a terrific scorer with a knack for clutch performances and buzzer-beaters and even played some very good defense at times. He’s still a ball-stopper, but in time, he should adapt better to D’Antoni’s system. In Game 2 of the series against the Celtics, he was completely unguardable and nearly singlehandedly won the game for the Knicks after injuries to Billups and Stoudemire. Melo is the franchise now and I expect big things. A

Roger Mason Jr. – Mason was out of the rotation from the beginning of the season, but he took it in stride and waited for his opportunity. When it came late in the season and in the playoffs, he was solid, but unspectacular. C

Toney Douglas – I like Toney Douglas more than most. I think he’s a very solid combo guard off the bench. He may not be a pure point guard, but in this day and age, combo guards like Russell Westbrook can succeed in the NBA. Toney has shown that he’s an excellent scorer off the bench and a good defender. He was a bit streaky this season, but when he was on, he could take over a game. With a full year under his belt learning the position from Billups and Carter, he should develop into a potent weapon off the bench for the Knicks. B-

Derrick Brown – Brown was signed late in the season to replace Azubuike and didn’t play a whole lot. In his limited minutes, he showed some potential, but it’s tough to give him a grade. Inc.

Jared Jeffries – Jeffries was another late signing by the Knicks after he was waived by Houston. Jeffries’ value is tough to gauge as he is a mediocre rebounder, a disastrous offensive player, and a solid defender who doesn’t get many steals or blocks. His defense was about what Knicks fans had come to expect from him, and his offense was at least as bad as I remembered from his previous stint in New York. He made a huge layup to tie the score near the end of Game 2 of the Boston series, but then fumbled the ball away on the next possession to lose the game. C-

Landry Fields – Fields was a revelation early in the season. He shocked everyone by winning the starting shooting guard spot out of training camp and shocked everyone again when he showed he deserved it. Fields spent about two thirds of the season as the best rookie not named Blake Griffin. He hit a wall towards the end of the season and struggled to regain his confidence. Hopefully we’ll see a lot more of the November Landry than the April Landry going forward. B+

Ronny Turiaf – Turiaf dealt with some injuries and struggled to be effective when playing more minutes than he was accustomed to. At this point in his career, it seems he is what he is: a solid, energetic center off the bench. As long as you use him in that role, he’ll give you exactly what you want: interior defense, rebounding, hustle, and the occasional basket inside. B-

Andy Rautins – It’s hard to believe that of the Knicks’ two second round picks, Rautins was the first one picked and the only one most fans had heard of. Rautins never found a place in D’Antoni’s rotation. I’d expect the Knicks to pick up his option and bring him back, hoping to make something of him. He played some point guard in college and should eventually be able to shoot well in the NBA, but he’s not there yet. Inc.

Bill Walker – Walker struggled somewhat early and lost his spot in the rotation to Shawne Williams, but found himself back in the rotation after the trade deadline. He did a little of everything, but didn’t shoot as well as he did last season. C+

Shawne Williams – Williams surprisingly won the final spot on the roster over fan favorite Patrick Ewing Jr. He didn’t play much early in the season but Walker’s struggles opened the door for him. Shawne shot the lights out as soon as he stepped on the court and led the league in three-point percentage for much of the season. He played better defense than expected as well and may be a major part of the Knicks’ plans moving forward. A

Amar’e Stoudemire – Amar’e not only met, but exceeded his lofty expectations in his first season in New York. He set a franchise record for the most consecutive 30 point games early on and became the first to be voted an All-Star starter since Patrick Ewing. He spent about half the season as a leading MVP candidate and was instrumental in bringing a second superstar to New York. In addition, he stayed healthy, playing in all but 4 regular season games. He was dominant in Game 1 in Boston and nearly led the Knicks to a victory, but suffered a minor injury before Game 2 that bothered him for the rest of the series. A+

Mike D’Antoni – D’Antoni has taken some heat this season, but I think he did a good job overall. He had a young team in playoff position before a major trade shook up half the roster. There were some issues early on and some injury problems, but he had the Knicks playing well leading up to the playoffs, where they were doomed by injuries to two of their three best players. B

Donnie Walsh – Donnie did a tremendous job putting this team together and will be greatly missed. He missed out on the biggest prizes of free agency, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, but it seems like they were hell bent on playing together. He also missed out on Joe Johnson, but that may have been a blessing in disguise. He turned two second round picks into Andy Rautins and First Team All-Rookie selection Landry Fields. He also signed an All-Star caliber point guard for next to nothing in Raymond Felton and got some value for David Lee. He gave up too much for Carmelo Anthony, but he was facing a ton of pressure from above to get the deal done and may not have even been responsible for the final terms of the trade. There were also some moves that didn’t work out, but none that proved particularly costly this year or in the future. A

The Fans – Knicks fans have packed the Garden all throughout the past decade, but mostly to boo. For the first time in years, they had something to cheer about. The atmosphere in MSG was absolutely electric and the team responded with some big wins. The MVP and MELO chants provided plenty of material for future MSG commercials. A+

Overall – Amar’e Stoudemire said it best: the Knicks are back. They’re not an elite team yet, but it looks they’re well on their way. They made the playoffs for the first time in 7 years and had a winning record for the first time in 10. They were unable to win a playoff game, but a couple of freak injuries played a major role in that. The Knicks made a huge leap over last season and once Amar’e, Carmelo, and Chauncey have a training camp together to learn how to best use each other’s strengths on offense, this team should be very dangerous. There’s still a possibility the Knicks add another superstar in the future, but they’re looking good for the time being. B+ 

With the Finals on a break, now seems like a good time to recap the Knicks season and hand out some grades. Before I get into that, I just want to acknowledge the big news really quick. Donnie Walsh will not return as the Knicks’ president and GM. The announcement described it as a mutual decision, and from what I’ve heard, the issue was contract length. Walsh wanted to sign a one-year deal, but Jim Dolan decided he wanted someone in place for at least two. If that was actually the reason behind it, I think Dolan’s actually making some sense. With a lockout looming, there may not be much of an offseason, and a one-year deal would leave the Knicks scrambling to find a new GM heading into the summer of 2012, which could handicap our plans to go after one of the big free agents of that class. Donnie did a great job in his brief tenure with the Knicks, turning the team from a laughingstock into a team on the rise. It’s a shame he wasn’t able to see it through to the end, but it seems like he might be about ready to retire. I can’t even bear to address the rumors about Dolan possibly bringing a certain ex-GM back to New York, so I’ll just put up my own ideal hire. I’d like to see the jobs of president and GM split. My first choice for president is former Knick Phil Jackson and for GM, I’d love to have former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard, who is inexplicably still unemployed. Pritchard is a great GM who built a contender in Portland and could be very successful building a team around Amar’e and Melo. Now, on to the grades.

Kelenna Azubuike – Azubuike was supposed to be ready to play around Christmas, but his recovery didn’t progress as planned. He was finally waived near the end of the season, without ever putting on a Knicks jersey. Inc.

Eddy Curry – Curry didn’t leave the bench this season and ended up being sent to Minnesota as a minor piece in the Carmelo Anthony deal. This was the highlight of his Knicks tenure and is enough to keep him from failing. D-

Anthony Randolph – Randolph seemed poised to break out this year, but never really got to a point where he could contribute. However, he displayed great maturity, patience, and professionalism in his response to being benched up until he was sent to Minnesota in the Melo deal. This impressed me and bumps his grade up a bit. D+

Timofey Mozgov – The mysterious Russian free agent won the starting center job out of training camp, but didn’t really show why at first. After some time on the bench, he rejoined the rotation and showed flashes of potential between fouls. He was sent to Denver at the deadline. C

Danilo Gallinari – Gallo started the season cold, but improved as time went on and had a solid half-season for the Knicks. He ended up in Denver, where he has a chance to shine. B-

Raymond Felton – Felton was a brilliant free agent signing this offseason and played some excellent basketball, even contending for an All-Star selection. He got shortchanged in the Melo deal, going to a team with a talented young point guard in Ty Lawson. Hopefully, he’ll get traded next season to a place he can get the minutes he deserves. A-

Wilson Chandler – Chandler had a breakout year and is well on his way to becoming a household name. He was extremely versatile for the Knicks, both starting and coming off the bench and playing 3 positions. Everywhere Coach D’Antoni put him, he excelled. He seemed very unhappy to leave New York when he was included in the deal for Carmelo Anthony and is a restricted free agent this summer. Hopefully the Knicks can find a way to bring him back into the fold. A

Corey Brewer – Brewer came over from Minnesota and was waived before ever playing in a game with the Knicks. Inc.

Renaldo Balkman – Balkman played a bit after coming over from Denver, but fell out of the rotation quickly. D

Shelden Williams – Williams saw some minutes for the undersized Knicks and showed flashes of the potential that made him a lottery pick. They were few and far between, however. C-